Monday, September 14, 2015

Washington Examiner: Colorado Hispanics Important for Republicans

David Drucker of the Washington Examiner reports in a data rich analysis about the importance of Hispanic votes in key swing states of Florida, Nevada and Colorado.

I point out the challenge for Republicans given the Donald Trump-like rhetoric that has dominated the early debates over immigration policy of the Obama administration. My view is, regardless of the attraction of Republican economic policies and potential attraction of individual candidates, over the top statements about Hispanic immigration will doom the party’s chances.
“It becomes a litmus test issue, if you’re so argumentative and visceral,” said Floyd Ciruli, a nonpartisan pollster in Denver.
Colorado Data

Hispanic registration is growing quickly, and now surpasses 10 percent of the electorate. Specifically in Colorado, Drucker points out that the Hispanic share of the vote has increased from 8 percent in 2014 to 13 percent in 2008 and 14 percent in 2012. Hispanics are projected to be 16 percent of the voting population in 2016.

President Obama won 75 percent of the vote in 2012 against Mitt Romney (won the state by 5 points) and 68 percent against John McCain in 2008 (won the state by 9 points). President Bush won the state twice, the second time with about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote.

Analyst Gary Langer’s latest ABC News/Washington Post poll shows the favorability of some top candidates (and VP Biden). Favorability for Donald Trump is deeply negative, balanced between negative and positive for Jeb Bush, and positive for Democrats Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.

See New York Times: Republicans fear Donald Trump is hardening party’s tone on race

1 comment:

Dave Barnes said...

from 8 percent in 2014 to 13 percent in 2008 and 14 percent in 2012.

from 8% in 2004, not 2014