Friday, September 4, 2015

Movement and Winnowing Before the CNN Republican Debate

The end of August polls show consistent winnowing and some surging among the candidates invited to the September 16 Republican debate. Former first lady, Nancy Reagan, has invited sixteen candidates to the two-stage debate format. The top candidates will be picked from polls compiled by September 10. Governor Gilmore has been dropped due to having less than one percent in the polls.

Carly Fiorina will be in the primetime debate since CNN changed its decision rule on which polls to consider and will allow eleven participants, most likely keeping Chris Christie on the stage.

Along with Fiorina, who went from 1.3 percent in the July Fox News decision rule to 5 percent at the end of August in the average, Ben Carson is the other post Fox News debate major winner, doubling his July 5.8 percent to 13 percent now. Carson is in second place, behind Trump across the country and in Iowa and South Carolina.

Other winners since the Fox News debate were Marco Rubio (5.4% to 6.0%), Ted Cruz (5.4% to 7.0%) and John Kasich, who went from 3.2 percent to 4.0 percent nationally and is now second in New Hampshire.

Fading and Treading
Jeb Bush falls into the barely treading water category. He is mostly just surviving, waiting for others to drop out and give him an open lane. The former frontrunner has been pushed out of position by Donald Trump and his own just average performances and lack of a message (12.0% and 9.0%).

Fading, but hoping for a late surge, is Scott Walker, who has faded partially due to his underwhelming Fox News performance (10.2% to 6.0%).Also in this category are Mike Huckabee (6.6% to 4.0%) and Rand Paul (4.8% to 3.0%).

Chris Christie is also stuck in a weak third position behind Trump and all the second-place candidates (3.4% to 3.0%).

The following candidates should not crowd the debate space and get out before the new year: Graham, Jindal, Pataki, Perry and Santorum.