Thursday, September 17, 2015

Latest Polls Have Clinton in Second Place in Iowa and New Hampshire. So what?

Hillary Clinton’s awful summer is extending to an even worse fall. Each new post-Labor Day poll has more bad news. The Democrats don’t get around to a debate until October 13, and if Clinton remains on the defensive, the current polling trend is likely to continue. Bernie Sanders is now ahead in the latest polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire and closing the national gap.

Sanders is still behind Hillary Clinton by 21 points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling average and is not yet a threat to Clinton. But the trajectory of the current narrative, which is mostly of Clinton’s own creation, is undermining two fundamental assumptions supporting her candidacy. First, it was assumed she was ready for the race both tactically; i.e., an on-the-ground delegate gathering strategy, which appears good, but also emotionally that is able to connect with voters in an authentic fashion. It’s here she appears floundering with endless re-boots and scripted authentic moments.

The second assumption may be more problematic for Clinton. She was going to lead the party and its RealClearPolitics average is now down to a few points against Trump, Bush and Rubio. Ominously, Joe Biden now runs stronger against Trump and Bush.
battered congressional and gubernatorial wings to victory in 2016. While the e-mail controversy and her stumbling campaign have helped Sanders some, it has hugely damaged her competitive strength against top candidates in the Republican field. She’s now tied with Donald Trump and behind Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio in the latest head-to-head ballot tests. Her position in the

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