Thursday, July 30, 2015

The State of the Republican Race

With 18 candidates, including Donald Trump, the Republican nominations look like pure anarchy. But, there are a few metrics that line up the top candidates with the known dates for political drama: a series of debates starting August 6 on Fox News (5 debates in 2015, including Colorado on October 28) and the caucus primary season beginning February in Iowa, with super delegate events in March.

As of July 29, the following are the polls and money as we know them for the top candidates.
  • Jeb Bush leads the money race and is tied with Scott Walker in the polls. However, the current leader in polling is Donald Trump.
  • Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have substantial poll numbers and war chests that can propel them into the March primaries and caucuses.
  • Rick Perry is at the bottom of the pack, essentially tied with John Kasich, who also has 2 percent and $12 million vs. Perry’s $18 million.
It is estimated that it will require $60 million to mount a sufficient media and field campaign to get into the mid-March delegate selections.

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