Hence, getting a deal that appears to meet the basic expectations, has the support of the negotiating powers and can hold most of the foreign policy media establishment is essential for public opinion and Congress. As a backup, the Administration is activating its liberal support groups to ensure that if a veto is needed, it can’t be overridden.
The Chicago Council on Global Affairs just completed a national survey of 2,034 adults in June 2015, which showed that although the public favors the negotiations and main deal points of the agreement (59%), they also believe:
- Iran is a significant threat – 57%
- They do not believe it will stop Iran from getting a bomb – 69%
- Support for stopping Iran if negotiations fail:
- Tighter sanctions – 80%
- Use troops to stop nukes – 67%
- If violate, airstrikes – 56%; U.S. troops – 44%
There is significant skepticism that the agreement will stop a determined Iran from getting a bomb, improve the life of its citizens or behave better toward its neighbors.
This president has sacrificed much of the U.S.’s strategic flexibility and friendship with Middle Eastern allies to achieve this agreement. It may be an Obama/Kerry legacy, but it remains to be seen if it is of long-term U.S. or Middle East strategic benefit.