Thursday, July 16, 2015

Obama Administration Must Now Sell Iranian Deal

With so much of the Administration’s reputation at risk, making sure the Iranian deal can pass
Congress and not face the hostility health care still faces from the American people is the Administration’s other negotiating goal.
Hence, getting a deal that appears to meet the basic expectations, has the support of the negotiating powers and can hold most of the foreign policy media establishment is essential for public opinion and Congress. As a backup, the Administration is activating its liberal support groups to ensure that if a veto is needed, it can’t be overridden.
  • Iran is a significant threat – 57%
  • They do not believe it will stop Iran from getting a bomb – 69%
  • Support for stopping Iran if negotiations fail:
    • Tighter sanctions – 80%
    • Use troops to stop nukes – 67%
    • If violate, airstrikes – 56%; U.S. troops – 44%
There is more support to stop Iran now than after an agreement. Enforcing an agreement will be a challenge for public opinion and the next administration.

There is significant skepticism that the agreement will stop a determined Iran from getting a bomb, improve the life of its citizens or behave better toward its neighbors.

This president has sacrificed much of the U.S.’s strategic flexibility and friendship with Middle Eastern allies to achieve this agreement. It may be an Obama/Kerry legacy, but it remains to be seen if it is of long-term U.S. or Middle East strategic benefit.

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