Friday, May 22, 2015

Senate and Presidential Races Tied Together

President Obama’s national approval rating has improved slightly since last fall’s election when it stood at 42 percent and contributed to the November across-the-board Democratic debacle, from U.S. Senators and governors to state houses.

Today, the President’s rating is 45 percent. Generally, along with the state of the economy, the President’s approval rating is the most significant factor in the election of a Democratic successor; that is, Hillary Clinton.

Forty-five percent is considered below the political “Mendoza line” as described by Amy Walters in the May 13, 2015 Cook Report. “The magic number for Obama – and ultimately Hillary’s chances – is somewhere around 47 percent.” Obama’s current approval is just on the cusp of being deadly.

Using Quinnipiac polling, the Cook Report shows that in several swing states, Obama is well below his 45 percent national approval average.

The other political trend that has been strengthened in recent years is the fact U.S. Senate races are more tied to the presidential race than in the past. The fate of Senator Bennet will be significantly affected by President Obama’s approval rating and the quality of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

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