Monday, March 30, 2015

Iranian Agreement – Produce It, Then Sell It

The administration is responsible for both the substance and the politics of the Iranian nuclear negotiations. The deal will have a series of critical terms and compliance metrics that various experts and interest groups will weigh in on. Elite opinion will be critical as the deal’s elements unfold. It is unlikely to receive overwhelming acclaim or condemnation. And, there will be follow-up and aftershocks. The following is a brief review of some of the stakeholders and the current American public opinion environment.

American Public

A majority of the public could support a deal, but it will need to appear credible on its face and have substantial elite and interest group support.
  • Terrorism moved up on list of major public concerns in 2014.
  • Iran has had slight image improvement, but still near top of enemy list with Russia and North Korea. Very little trust.
  • Public supports negotiations, but not convinced they can stop Iran bomb making intent.
  • Sees Iran with a bomb as a threat and will support military action.

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