Friday, February 27, 2015

Clinton Ahead by Less Than Margin of Error in Colorado

The latest Quinnipiac poll (February 2015) shows Hillary Clinton ahead of the Republican field, but among two candidates, Governor Scott Walker and Senator Rand Paul, her lead is within the margin of error. Both Walker and Paul, who poll well nationally in the crowded field, tend to span some of the divisions in the party. Walker appeals to establishment Republicans as a no-nonsense governor, evangelists due to his Baptist background, and Tea Party adherents with his gutsy anti-government union and cut spending Wisconsin record.

Paul’s attraction is more eclectic, but he has base of support among younger Republicans, libertarians and more liberal groups (both small). But he appears to attract more independent-type voters than many of his Republican colleagues.

Notice Clinton’s share of the vote doesn’t exceed 44 percent, leaving two to six points to be fought over (Hickenlooper received 49%, Udall 46% both in 2014; Obama in 2008 received 54% and 51% in 2012).

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