Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Forecasts Mostly Get Right Side, Miss Republican Strength

The forecasts uniformly predicted a Republican controlled Senate and many said by seven seats. (It’s now eight and could go to nine after the Louisiana runoff on December 6.). The last forecasts missed Kansas going substantially Republican and a close Republican win in North Carolina. They had the independent and Democrat Kay Hagan ahead, respectively.

Looking over the final pre-election forecasting map, the major difference was the margin of Republican victories in many states exceeded the final polling averages. For example, the Ernst Iowa victory of 8 points not 2, Senator Pryor in Arkansas lost by 16 points and not the projected 7, and Ms. Nunn in Georgia lost by 8 not the 3 on the last polling average of November 4. The forecast and two-point margin nailed the Gardner victory in Colorado.

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