Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Colorado Battleground Between Senate Candidates and Polls

The national forecasters are predicting a win by Republican Cory Gardner for the U.S. Senate with high levels of confidence. But Democrats and their allies are pushing back arguing there is a bias in published public polls, especially in Colorado, against Democrats. Their concern is that the “Udall is losing” final media narrative is leading to a host of negative stories about problems in the campaign and could harm turnout. Forecasters, especially Nate Silver of 538, address the bias argument admitting it is possible in Colorado, but that the forecast accounts for bias for and against a party in a particular state and throughout the entire range of states being tracked.

Hence, the election will be a test for the candidates, the public pollsters and the forecasters.

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