Tuesday, October 28, 2014

The U.S. Senate is in Play – Republicans Have Narrow Advantage

The major forecasters have the Republicans winning the six seats needed to take control of the U.S. Senate. Colorado is now placed in the Republican column – a shift from before Labor Day when Udall was ahead and earlier in September when it was a toss-up. However, all the observers agree that the latest polls are too close to rule out a Democratic win in Colorado and Republican falling short of six seats.

The Colorado prediction is based on the track record of a race with Colorado’s characteristics; e.g., incumbent Democrat (forecasters look at different characteristics, some only use polling data), and Republicans having a two-point lead seven days out. Historically, in a contest like that, the Republican has an 80 percent likelihood of winning.

At the moment, Democrats look to hold incumbents in New Hampshire and North Carolina, but not in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado and Louisiana.

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