Friday, October 31, 2014

Republicans are Close, But Not There Yet

Republicans are ahead in eight senate seats, but the leads are modest and they remain vulnerable in Georgia. Democrats have good ground games and lots of money to keep the races close to the end.

In the House, the handicappers, such as Cook and Rothenberg, believe Democrats will lose 8 to 12 seats.

Part of the continual closeness of the races is the lack of an identifiable wave. The generic ballot test, as of October 31, was only 2 points to the Republicans, down from 4 weeks earlier. It was 9 points to the Republicans in their big win in 2010 and 12 points to the Democrats in their takeover of the House in 2006.

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