Thursday, October 30, 2014

Forecasters Say Gardner; Handicappers Call it Toss-up

The forecasters, such as FiveThirtyEight, New York Times, Washington Post and Huffington Post, are predicting Cory Gardner the Senate winner, with higher and higher percentages: 538 – 78%,  NYT – 84%, HuffPost – 62% and WashPost – 96%.

The handicappers, that is, observers who examine more than just the late polling data and trends, but also consider the campaigns, history of the state, etc., still rate the state a toss-up as of Wednesday, October 28 (Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato).

Udall counters this national narrative with private polls that claim he’s up a point or a bit more and a massive GOTV campaign to try to bring out people who, but for the effort, would not vote (and, hence, be missed by pollsters).

November 4 will provide the judgment.

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