The Real Clear Politics generic ballot test average has just jumped from a percentage point for Democrats, where it sat for the entire spring and summer, to four points for the Republicans since September 6. The last time the Democrats won a single test was a USA Today/Pew Research poll on August 24. And clearly the President and foreign policy have been driving the polls with the President’s August vacation and the crisis in Iraq with television coverage of beheadings.
The generic ballot test, along with the presidential approval, contributes to the forecasting of the midterm elections.
Pew Research reports on September 12 that Republicans have a three-point advantage with likely voters on the generic ballot test. They point out that Republicans had a seven-point advantage in September 2010 when they retook the House and a six-point advantage just prior to 2010 Election Day.