Friday, July 18, 2014

The Dems Slip Behind

In a significant political turn of events, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Colorado’s two top Democrats are now running behind their Republican opponents. The biggest surprise was Governor John Hickenlooper, who by conventional wisdom was near certain to win re-election. He is now trailing Republican Bob Beauprez.

But, U.S. Senator Mark Udall’s campaign must be even more concerned. The narrative for most of Washington’s political class is that, although Udall was on the vulnerable list, the seat leans Democratic. This poll begins to change the narrative to Udall is in a “fight for his political life.”

Two of Washington’s top political handicappers – Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg – had the race a toss-up, even throughout most of the forecasters using historical political data thought the blue hue of recent elections offered Udall a cushion. But, as the election draws closer, polls begin to tell the story. Udall is now behind Gardner and many of the internal figures are not promising.

Colorado politics is volatile and it’s reflected in the polls. The next three months will likely see many changes of position, but, as of July 17, Colorado is in for a first-rate contest.

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