The New York Times forecasting model has control of the U.S. Senate in a near statistical tie, with the Republicans having a 54 percent chance of winning at least six seats necessary for control.
The major forecasts tend to show the Colorado Senate seat a toss-up, but at least two – Rothenberg and Sabato – still have it leaning Democrat.
Forecasting began last fall and early this year, primarily examining historical election data and national polling results, such as President Obama’s approval. This spring pundits have added whatever local poll data was available. Some also rate the finances of each candidate and some indicators of campaign and candidate quality. Cook and Rothenberg tend to be handicappers and examine each race individually, with subjective judgment involved. Sabato both handicapping and forecasts; i.e., uses an algorithm.