Thursday, June 12, 2014

Cantor Loss and Colorado

Does Eric Cantor losing his primary to an anti-establishment, anti-immigration Tea Party-like insurgent portend for the June 24 Colorado Republican primary?

Much will be made of the wider meaning of the Cantor loss. It may be of limited effect since there are only a handful of Republican primaries left this year, but Colorado is one of them. Voting has started in the four-way races for governor and Fourth Congressional District.

A few observations:
  1. Low turnout makes races less predictable, and in Republican primaries, more conservative.
  2. The immigration issue is back due to talk radio celebrities and the recent flood of juvenile illegal immigrants in Texas. Tom Tancredo, the leading anti-illegal immigration candidate, has been downplaying the issue (as have most Colorado Republicans) to reduce the controversy around his quest for the nomination, but he is the winner if that is the issue that frames primary voters’ views.
  3. Talk radio can be powerful in primaries, especially with star performers, such as Laura Ingraham, Ann Coulter, Mark Levin and Glenn Beck. They were relentless against Cantor. Peter Boyles has been working the anti-establishment and immigration themes. Does he and his talk show colleagues have the reach to make a difference in Colorado?
  4. Anti-establishment sentiments are affecting both parties. Ask Gov. John Hickenlooper who has an angry left attacking him daily. Are Bob Beauprez and Ken Buck put on the defense due to the Cantor loss?
The Colorado Republican Party’s June 24 choice will greatly influence the narrative into November.

Eric Cantor (L), Tom Tancredo (C) and Bob Beauprez (R)

1 comment:

Dave Barnes said...

Tommy is the best guy to vote for in the primary.