Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Why Obama Doesn’t Break Out

President Obama has nearly moved to Colorado and wins most Colorado polls, yet it is still a very close race.  The recent robo poll that has Obama up by three points (Purple Poll, 8-14-12) also demonstrates why the President appears to have hit a ceiling and is unable to break out.
The Colorado poll shows:
  • Obama’s favorability rating remains negative – 46% favorable to 50% unfavorable
  • Obama’s job approval well below 50 percent – 45% approve to 48% disapprove
  • Direction of economy is seen as getting worse compared to better by 17 percentage points – 27% getting better to 44% getting worse
Obama is being held back by voters’ negative views on direction of the economy and their evaluation of his performance.  Even among Democrats, Obama’s approval rating has considerable leakage and is lower than the percentage of Republicans disapproving.

Twelve percent of Democrats are disapproving of Obama’s job performance and another 11 percent say they are undecided.  Only two percent of Republicans register any doubt about Obama’s performance, and they are 88 percent to 10 percent convinced he has failed.

This could be a product of Democrats concerned about the economy. It could also be liberal Democrats believing he has been insufficiently liberal on some domestic or foreign issues important to them or some of the few conservative Democrats concerned he has moved too far left on class rhetoric or social issue, such as gay rights or immigration.

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