Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Is Obama Beginning to Break Away?

After three months of a race within two points, has Barack Obama begun to break away from Mitt Romney?  As of the first week of August, a couple of new polls suggest the race is Obama’s beyond the margin of error.

A Pew poll of July 16-26 has Obama up by 10 points over Romney (51% to 41%).  Pew has had Obama up consistently since January by at least four points.

The new Real Clear Politics polling average now has Obama up by 4 percent.

Although, independents remain close – 45 percent for Romney and 43 percent for Obama.  Romney’s challenge is primarily a high unfavorable image induced by recent Obama negative advertising, but initiated by the Republican primary from January to March (Romney 52% unfavorable; Obama 45% unfavorable).

A second poll receiving widespread coverage from the New York Times, CBS and Quinnipiac University shows Obama substantially ahead of Romney in critical swing states of Florida (51% to 45%), Ohio (50% to 44%) and Pennsylvania (53% to 42%).

Similar to voters in the Pew poll, the swing state voters appear to be favoring Obama due to his personal appeal and his attacks on Romney’s experience with Bain Capital.

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