Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Republican Debates Top TV Show in 2011

The thirteen Republican debates in 2011 drew strong viewership, incessant commentary, and made and removed several candidate frontrunner statuses.  Herman Cain’s initial boom in the Florida straw poll and Rick Perry’s stall reflected their performance in the first CNN Tea Party Movement debate.

The interest in cable networks to gain access to candidates, stories and audiences partially explains the proliferation of debates.  The partnership with political interest groups, movements and think tanks is new and added events.

Mitt Romney’s image of a steady, if uninspiring, candidate was largely created by his debate performances through December.  Newt Gingrich’s late ascendance to top rank was a function of his ability to reframe debate questions to serve his anti-media themes and Tea Party Movement preferences.  The lack of a debate the two holiday weeks made him more vulnerable to the late attack ads against him.

About one-third of Republicans in early October (Pew, Oct. 13-16, 2011) reported having watched the Republican candidates debate, but one-half of Tea Party supporters said they watched.  Tea Party watchers were the most likely to say the debates led them to reassess their choice of candidates.

The debates have changed the Republican landscape since June:

·         Debates nationalize the race, especially when combined with polls.  Much less emphasis has gone into state visits and more into debate preparation until very late before the Iowa caucus.
·         The tone of the race became highly negative and candidates’ weaknesses were put on a national stage early in the race.
·         Early debates provided a forum for under-financed and mostly known candidates to stay in the race.  Will post Iowa debates encourage also-rans in Iowa and New Hampshire to keep campaigning?  Apparently not, but they did dominate the 2011 media coverage.

See articles:
Wall Street Journal How TV debates have changed the race

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