Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Obama Slips – Electoral Map Contracts in West

The economy and missteps have President Barack Obama in a serious slide as he approaches the one-year mark to his re-election.  Presidents can expect to be re-elected, especially if they have no primaries, great fundraising, a strong organization and a good campaign style.  Obama has them all.  But, of the three presidents who lost re-elections beginning with Gerald Ford, Obama’s late August approval number (40%) is lower (only Jimmy Carter was lower at 36%) and the current unemployment rate higher (9.1%) (accept Reagan who won by a landslide).

Another Obama advantage was his wide base of electoral support in 2008.  Obama won 365 electoral votes (need 270 to win).  Six western states were in Obama’s camp and six went for John McCain.

Obama carried Colorado in the center right as defined by the number of times a Democratic presidential candidate has carried the state since the 1992 Clinton election.  The range runs from far right states, like Idaho and Wyoming, through to the far left states of California, Oregon and Washington.

The Obama electoral map has contracted since earlier this year when there was some speculation the Chicago organization would go after Arizona and Montana.  As of today, holding Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico will define the campaign’s outer boundaries and likely be major fights.

See articles:

No comments: