Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Status of Mayor’s Race – A Week Out

The latest robo poll in the Denver mayor’s race appears to confirm the view that Michael Hancock leads. The best news for Hancock in the poll is not the amount of his lead (49% to 39% for Chris Romer), but the fact he is ahead.

Romer, recognizing he was behind on the day after the general election (May 3), has run an aggressive campaign to raise Hancock’s negative rating and weaken him with key constituencies, including women and liberals, with attacks on Hancock’s statements related to creationism, vouchers and abortion. He’s gone after Latinos with high-profile endorsements, like Federico Peña and James Mejia.

Many of the attack materials have come from an anonymous 527 committee.

If Romer is not ahead 10 days out after his sustained attack, he’s likely going to lose, and it could start to slip away since some of his weaker supporters may stay home or go with the apparent winner – Hancock.

As pointed out in our blog (May 27), Hancock’s win is a product of what Romer understood to be his greatest disadvantage – people like Michael more than him.

One additional fact appears to be Denver’s well-networked liberal community has been able to counteract the relentless Romer attacks with their rapid, but low-key response tactics.

Although Hancock appears to be ahead, the actual point spread as of May 27 could be closer than 10 points. It has been assumed the race would be more like 2,000 votes, or 2 percent. Eleven percent is undecided, and Romer has a base in older voters who are more likely to vote.

See Denver Post article:  Michael Hancock has 10-point lead over Chris Romer in Denver mayoral race, poll shows

For May 27 Poll results, click here

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