Hispanic voters in Denver’s mayoral election could be the key swing vote. They represent between 11 (Ciruli Associates) and 17 percent (Denver Post robo poll) of the Denver electorate according to recent polls.
The national exit poll in the 2010 November election indicated they were 8 percent of the national electorate and 12 percent of Colorado November voters.
In the Denver poll of two weeks ago (RBI Strategies), Hispanics were closely divided between Chris Romer (43%) and Michael Hancock (37%). The latest Denver Post robo poll shows Latinos favoring Hancock 45 percent to 41 percent for Romer, reversing earlier results.
Among James Mejia voters in the first round of voting, their preference favored Hancock 43 percent to 39 percent for Romer (RBI Strategies).
Romer has made a major effort to win Hispanic voters using the Mejia endorsement and specific issue appeals. If he is losing or barely winning them, then he probably can’t win the election. They are a key swing group.
See Pew Research Center report: The Latino Electorate in 2010: More Voters, More Non-Voters