Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Romer Stalls, Mejia and Hancock Surge

The latest Denver Post robo poll must be of concern for Chris Romer whose campaign appears to have stalled. In a poll of late March, he had 20 percent and is about in the same position (22%). Both James Mejia (22%) and Michael Hancock (18%) doubled their numbers since the March survey.

• There will be a runoff. Romer who appeared to have momentum in March is now below a quarter of the vote.

• Romer still has an advantage with high name identity and the most money for advertising during the last three weeks.

• Mejia’s base is larger than Hancock’s if Hispanics will turn out. A Ciruli Associates poll in early April shows 11 percent of the Denver electorate is Hispanic and 7 percent Black – a 4 percent difference.

• The also-ran candidates are holding 32 percent of the vote. A small amount may shift to the frontrunners by Election Day, but most likely the top three candidates will be splitting about two-thirds of the vote.

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