Thursday, April 21, 2011

Mejia has Advantage

If the May 3 mayor’s election is decided by minority votes, James Mejia has an advantage. In a recent Ciruli Associates poll done with live interviewers (versus the Denver Post robo poll), 11 percent of the likely voters were Hispanic and 7 percent were African-American. Federico Pena’s close elections in 1983 and 1987 were made possible by exceptional Hispanic turnout when there were fewer Hispanics in the electorate.

Denver voters are more liberal than either middle-of-the road or conservative, which is significantly different than voters statewide. African-American Denver voters are the least likely to be conservative (11%) and Hispanics are the most likely (32%).

More than half of Denver voters are Democrats.  Hispanic and African-American voters are much more likely to be registered Democrat.

In the recent Denver Ciruli Associates poll, 27 percent of the interviews were conducted on cell phones and 100 percent were registered voters because voter names were drawn from current voter registration lists.  The Denver Post robo poll did not call cell phones and only asked voters if they are registered.  A percentage either misstate their registration status or are mistaken about their status; for example, due to recent purges of inactive voters.

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