Friday, April 29, 2011

Celebrity Status and Strength in a Primary are Very Different Things

In a 9News interview on Donald Trump and the birther issue, I pointed out:

“‘He [Trump] is tied at the top of the polls and there are some polls that say he is ahead,’ 9NEWS Political Analyst Floyd Ciruli said. ‘As of today, he changed the dynamic because he has become a huge distraction and interestingly, those other relatively unknown and less strong candidates right now are almost dying of lack of oxygen. The entire press corps is up in New Hampshire following Trump around. He may end up being a very marginal candidate, but as of today, he is probably the number one candidate.’

Ciruli believes Trump’s polling numbers are tied to his celebrity status and high name recognition, two things that may not carry him.

‘Celebrity status versus strength in a primary are very, very different things,’ Ciruli said. ‘On balance, his name identification, those positives and negatives don't fit presidential politics. He has more baggage than he has benefit.’

Early success in presidential polling doesn't always translate to long-term success. Four years ago, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had a significant lead among Republicans considering a run for the White House. By Jan. 30, 2008, Giuliani’s failures in the primaries and sagging polling numbers forced him to withdraw from the race.”

No comments: