The latest Gallup poll shows President Barack Obama with a 46 percent approval rating, down from his recent high of 50 percent when he gave the State of the Union. A rating below 50 percent is considered threatening for a re-election. This blog assumes the national race will be won by just a couple of points, and smart campaigns will likely make the difference, along with the direction of the unemployment rate later in early 2012.
In a recent multi-state survey for anti-gun advocates, bipartisan pollsters tested Obama’s favorability in Arizona and Colorado. While favorability is different than job approval, and Obama is better liked than his performance is approved, it is still useful to go into a re-election with a positive favorability rating.
Colorado’s registered voters are about five points more positive than Arizona’s. The same survey showed Arizona Senator Jon Kyl with 46 percent favorability (a Republican who just announced he would not seek re-election) and Colorado Democratic senators Mark Udall and Michael Bennet with a 45 percent and 47 percent favorability rating, respectively. The lower ratings than Obama’s was largely a reflection that about one-quarter of the population could not rate their senators. Their positive-to-negative ratio was more than 20 points and better than Obama’s.