Although it is unlikely the Democrats will lose 40 congressional seats in November, the number necessary for them to lose control of U.S. House of Representatives, Obama’s 50 percent average mid-term approval suggests a loss of at least 20 to 30 seats. But, there are other negative signs for Democrats, including high unemployment, low satisfaction with Congress and the direction of the economy, that suggest the party is on the edge of a major crisis.
Obama’s and Democrats’ problem is mostly related to the health care debate and his effort to force a party vote. Obama’s strategist believes passing reform will be better than passing nothing. It’s not clear that judgment is correct.
Bush and Clinton both gained seats in one of their mid-term elections, but both had high average approval ratings at that point in their presidencies. Obama is on the cusp. Hence, vulnerable Democratic incumbent congressional and senate candidates are mostly on their own.
(See post on Fox News)